Trouble Ahead
Yesterday, the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq announced preliminary results of 10 provinces, partially. Baghdad results were 89% votes of total votes. So far the Unified Iraqi Coalition (the 555 all-Shia-list) is in the lead. Then there is the Tawafoq Iraqi Front (the 618 main Sunni list). Then the National Iraqi List (the 731 secular list). Right now, the 555 has 41% of the total votes, thank god, not yet above 50%. If they are above 50%, they can take the government all by themselves, but since they are not, they will have to share. Plus, these are yet preliminary results, the main Sunni provinces Anbar, Salah Al-Deen, Mosul, Diala and Kurkok are yet not accounted for. So I can safely presume that the 618 and 731 guys are going to rise in numbers, while the 555 is not going to rise but just a little.
Right now, I am watching a press conference on TV. It seems that a lot of the other lists are accusing armed militias of faking results. It is said that in southern Iraq, people were threatened to vote for the 555 list. Although I can't say if this is true or not, but I wouldn't say it is unlikely. Because Badr Brigade is a very strong militia in the south, and is known for doing killing and kidnapping. Once again, the story of the trucks coming from Iran filled with false votes, surfaces again. I am beginning to think that it is more than a rumor, and it might just be true.
The official spokesman for the committee Ferid Ayar, had announced that they have received almost a thousand complains. Twenty of them, as he said, are very serious, and need to be looked at immediately. Right now, a lot of the lists has demanded that the elections are made again, and with better supervision. I don't know what to think of this, I was very happy that I voted, and I think that doing it again, is going to mark this one as a failure. I don't want that. But again, I do not want to spend the next four years with a 555 government. Anyway, I guess that if they are to be repeated, it is going to be made for certain areas that has suffered from fraud.
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posted by Hassan | 7:56 PM
9 Comments:
They've just started reporting this on the news here in the US, Hassan. I sincerely hope that it's just political game playing, with people mis-stating the prelimanary results! Some of the statements I've heard about the vote seem like statistical impossibilities!
Hey Hassan, I agree with Craig, this sounds like political scaremongering.
An important thing to realize is there is no such thing as a perfect election. Even the elections they have here can have some irregularities. From what I've gathered, Iraq's election last week was not just at par with a typical election here, it was better.
I personally think the best thing that can happen in Iraq is for the winner to have less than 50% of the seats - a "minority government" as we would call it in Canada. This moderates the government a bit, and makes it so that the party in power can't do anything without getting at least one other party to agree to it. After a few years like this, Iraqis will get a better taste of what each politician and what each list represents, and may vote less along ethnic lines in the next election, and more based on the political platform of each list.
I think there were 30,000+ voting locations, so you can imagine that even 1,000 copmlaints would be less than 3% of polling stations.
I think many of us Iraq-watchers and many secular Iraqis are saddened that the secular candidates did not pick up more support this time.
My hopes are that things continue to go forward as quickly and safely as possible....
got to get this done
got to get our boys out of there soon
thanks for voting, and for being a voice of sanity in an insane country
Brian
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