Assumptions: Constitution seems like passing

     On Saturday the voting ended at 5 PM, with almost no or very little accidents. No terror actions were reported. The voting went well in Baghdad, the night before it was generally calm, except for the terror attack on the power lines. So we didn't wake up on the sound of shots, or on electricity either. Al-Anbar wasn't that lucky, the people woke on sounds of heavy fire fights and bombing too. The number of voters at Al-Anbar wasn't more than 33% of the total eighteen plus population. AL-Basrah, the southern most city of Baghdad was the most peaceful city of the day. No accidents whatsoever. Basrah is generally a city of Shias, they form 80% of the population, 15% are Sunnis, the rest are Christians, Turks and other minorities. In the North, Mosul went into a state of chaos in the morning, people didn't know where to vote, some vote centers were closed, the clerks at others didn't show up. Read what Najma wrote about that day.

     I have been tracking the progress the guys are making in vote counting. The first estimates are that Anbar and Salah Al-Deen voted against the constitution. In the North, Mosul a city of Sunnis mostly, is estimates as a yes province. Although the Sunnis are the general population there, but Mosul has a lot of other minorities in it, Athorians, Kurds, Turks, Yezedias, Shabak, Shias and Turks. So I guess it is going to be tough to guess what the result will be. In my opinion, Mosul will be the province that decide the fate of the constitution. Because first estimates for Salah Al-Deen and Al-Anbar are that over 80% voted against the constitution. The constitution will fail if one more province voted against it. So if Mosul votes for it, it will pass. If it votes against it, it will not pass. Kurdistan has voted mostly for the constitution, which is predictable. In the South, estimates show that Basrah has voted for the constitution. Karbala has voted for it too. Najaf is going to be a close call. Because Al-Sadr followers will not vote for the constitution. Anyway these estimates are not conclusive. Results should come out in a few days. The constitution will pass if no more than 66% of the voters in three provinces voted against it. According to these estimates, the constitution will not be approved if one more province voted against it.

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